Part 1: Forecast of Economic Trends and Interest Rates (40% of the project grade)
For this project, you will need to investigate global and domestic economic trends. The decision of what type of securities to buy or to sell depends on global and domestic economic trends because the economic situation of the country is a main factor of profitability.
A good understanding of the industry and macroeconomic situation is also useful for explaining the past performance and creating a reliable forecast of future sales and profits. You will use your findings in all parts of this written assignment.
Select at least three news articles that discuss short-term and long-term economic trends in the United States. Specifically, you will need
the forecast of economic growth, and
data-driven short-term and long-term forecasts of interest rates.
At least one news article should be dated within the past month.
The article should be from an online newspaper or magazine, or a government website. Materials posted on educational websites like www.thebalance.com and www.khanacademy.org are not considered news articles, even if they are recent and relevant.
Your specific assignment is as follows:
Compare and contrast the opinions of the authors of the articles regarding the forecast of economic trends.
Compare and contrast the opinions of the authors of the articles regarding the forecast of short-term and long-term interest rates.
Then, summarize the key points of the articles in one to two pages.
For the comparison sections, present the key information, data, and statistics to
support your conclusions.
Write in your own words with brief quotations from the article(s). For all quotations, statistics, and other information attributable to a specific source, include in-text citations and references formatted in accordance with the current edition of the APA style manual.
Part 2: Treasury Yield Curves (40% of the project grade) Based on the course material presented in Weeks 2 and 4
For this part of the project we will be using the U.S. Treasury Department website. It is useful site for obtaining actual Treasury yield data.
1. Create a table with the interest rates data for the Treasury yield curve for the following four dates. You can simply copy-paste the dates. Present the data in your response as a table.
a. 30/12/1992
b. 12/02/2008
c. 3/26/2019
d. 2021: the most recent available business day
2. Create the graphs in Excel and include them in your project.
3. Contrast the yield curves data for these four business days. What curve(s) can be
considered normal curves? Inverse curves? Flat curves?
4. Compare long-term and short-term interest rates for each curve. What do yield
curves say about long-term versus short-term interest rates?
5. The yield curve’s shape and level change due to a variety of monetary, economic,
and political factors. What factors could account for this difference in shapes of the
curves and in level of interest rates?
6. Using the forecast of economic trends and interest rates you found in Part 1 of the
project, what shape Treasury yield curve and level of interest rates do you expect to see in the short term and in the long term?
Part 3: Reflection (5% of the project grade)
Write a paragraph in your own words reflecting on what you learned from the assignment and how you think you could apply what you learned in the workplace or in your everyday life.
Presentation of Paper and Writing (15% of the project grade)
Organization, format, and presentation of paper including the title page, introduction, body, and summary. Begin each section with a subheading; use the subheadings described here (4% of the project grade).
Use of tables, figures, and other graphics to summarize and support analysis presented in the paper. All tables and charts should have the numbering system:
“Table 1,” a substantive title, and a reference to the source of the information (3% of the project grade).
Logical and smooth transitions and relationships among sections of the written report (3% of the project grade).
Research sources and significance of research information and data, and use of APA citation methodology (5% of the project grade).
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